The MAS-AirAsia share swap (Part 2)

DISCLAIMER

How much financial commitment does AirAsia have in the coming years?


Let me break this down a little.

Airbus has a 375 aircraft order from AirAsia (175 are A320 & 200 are A320NEO). What's this and how do they differ? Find out !
How many has AirAsia received? How many more to come? Where are these planes now? Ready for some maths?

- AirAsia has had 62 of these delivered to them since Dec-2005. Since then, 5 of these are now with Indonesia AirAsia and 1 is with Thai AirAsia.
- Thai AirAsia has had 23 delivered directly to them.
- Indonesia AirAsia has had 15 delivered directly to them. 3 of which has gone to AirAsia, just after the 5 that came from AirAsia. It has to be noted that the 5 that went to Indonesia AirAsia were older planes (2 were delivered in Sep-2006, 3 between May-Nov 2008).
- AirAsia Philippines has had 3 aircraft registered and ready for delivery. These are registration RP-C8189,-C8190,-C8191. The last known picture of RP-C8189 was 3 weeks after delivery here in Beijing. Why is it here? Were these aircraft leased from BOC aviation and the owners wanted them close by before releasing them? 1 of these (RP-C8190) has been given to Indonesia AirAsia in Jan-12. Source: Plane movements here (1a) & here (1b)

So in total, AirAsia as a group has had 103 aircraft delivered. Although, Airbus claims to have delivered 98 not including the AirAsia Philippines ones. Download the excel file on this page (1)

When are the remaining 272 aircraft to be delivered?

For 2012, they will take only 14 aircraft. Initially it was 24 but 10 has been pushed back to 2015 (the expected year the A320NEO delivery begins).Source: (1) . That leaves 58 A320 aicraft to be delivered in 2013-2015. Averaging out that's about 19 aircraft a year. At the current rate of growth since 2005, they were able to absorb 15 aircraft a year. How are they going to create enough flights to utilise the extra 4 aicraft a year?

If AirAsia is smart, then they should use the incoming aircraft to replace, by selling, the older ones in the fleet. As per what Singapore airlines are doing.
Some industry insiders say that AirAsia really utilises their aircraft to its maximum capabilities and then defer on payments for maintenance, repair & overhaul (MRO) works which results in aircraft not being in that great a shape.
How they came to know about this i'm not sure but they suggest that this this could mean their aircraft have a lower resale value or even no takers.

Regardless, they still have to come up with financing to pay for these incoming planes. It has been alleged that a Prominent Local Bank (PLB) is providing the financing for this and if AirAsia is to default then it could spell the end of the bank. It has been alleged that the ultimate aim of this CCF is to merge the 2 airlines into a new Malaysian Airlines. Therefore, the orders and such will be borne by the new entity. I have heard about this since the 39th AGM of MAS.
What purpose does this serve? If all these allegations are to be believed then it is to save an ailing empire of course. And believe it or not, it isn't MAS.

MAS has been sick but the actions taken to remedy the situation of late were not addressing the actual root causes as alleged here.

I have an idea of what the ultimate aim is and it was what was tried in Ireland but the Govt and EU blocked it.


Come back for more..

السلام عليكم
Peace be unto you